The USA Men’s National team goes into this month’s test matches ranked #17 in the world by the IRB.

Canada goes in ranked #13.

Can they move higher?

We take a look:

Current Rankings:

Games this weekend:
Japan at Romania
USA v Russia (Neutral)
Canada v Samoa (Neutral)
Tonga at Italy

So let’s go by how the teams are ranked, and give the win to the higher-ranked team. Let’s say, also, that all of the results stay within 15 points. Here’s how the rankings would look like:

Almost no movement there. Japan would bump up ahead of Georgia, who are idle, and Russia slips just behind idle Spain.

A week later, Romania is idle, but USA plays Tonga and Canada plays Russia. Just to help us along, Japan plays Georgia in Tbilisi.

Let’s say they, again, follow the rankings, (even if the home team gets a rankings boost, as the system allows, we go with the higher-ranked team) we end up with this:

A ten-point difference for Canada in the rankings points means they get no rankings benefit from beating the Russians in a blowout. If we assume an Italy loss to New Zealand and a Samoa loss to Wales, we get those two coming closer (Samoa is more of an estimate).

With Georgia losing to Japan, USA moves ahead of them despite losing points in a loss to Tonga.

But … what if there are upsets? Let’s say Russia beats Canada and the USA beats Tonga.

The USA jumps up one spot either way, but by beating Tonga they are much, much closer to Japan. Russia doesn’t pass Romania, but comes closer. Canada drops below Fiji.

OK, and now to the final match of the tour (Canada ends against the New Zealand Maori, which is not a rankings test).

We’ll go back to this ranking, which is what we had if the higher-ranked teams won in the first two weeks:

Now the USA plays Romania in Romania, and Fiji plays in Georgia (there’s a clash of cultures, isn’t there?). If the USA and Fiji both win, then you get this (note, none of the other teams are playing games that will affect their rankings):

No change in rankings, but Fiji edges closer to Canada, and USA edges closer to Japan.

If USA and Fiji both win by 15 or more you get this;

Fiji moves up.

And if Romania and Georgia win at home, you get this:

Both losing teams would slip.

And finally, what happens if the USA wins all of their games by 15 or more:

Not a massive jump. Three big victories would move the USA from 17^th to 15^th. However, as important, it would stick them smack in the middle of that 2^nd tier (12-21) rather than at the bottom edge of it.

The rankings look like they will stratify this fall. The top-tier group will likely break away a little from Tier II. And Tier II will bunch up somewhat. This is because of the 12 full test matches involving Tier II nations, seven will be Tier II v Tier II matchups (with one being a Tier II v. a high Tier III team).